COP 26 Glasgow – Who has something for the Long Tail?
In December 2015 I was in Paris for the most successful of the United Nations’ ‘Conference of the Parties’ (COP 21), at which the legally binding international treaty was signed to limit global warming to “well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius”. The earlier COP15 conference in Copenhagen had been hopeless, ending in arguments and frustration. By contrast, Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, crafted success in Paris. You might imagine he did so by relying on the grandeur of an historic palais in the city. He didn’t. The venue at a disused airfield north of Paris was soulless, and the cold wind and grey skies added to a sense of depression. Laurent Fabius employed a simple technique familiar to most diplomats, and one overlooked in Copenhagen. It was to make sure that difficult questions were asked only after the delegates had enjoyed a fine meal. With stomachs full of fine French food, they had less appetite for an argument.
Alok Sharma, the President of COP26, will be aware of the secret sauce used by the French in 2015. But this year - as FT correspondents have reported - businesses, not the ‘Parties’ to the negotiations, are taking centre stage. The preparatory work at the World Economic Forum, where I am a member of the Council for Manufacturing and Supply Chains, is now as important as the small steps taken by governments at the G20 in Rome. In my opinion, the agenda at future meetings will be set largely by business, with governments asked to follow up. We need better accounting rules, better finance structures, better measurement techniques for carbon emissions, and a price for CO2. Business can do the heavy lifting in these areas. And most of all, if that Paris goal is to be implemented, we need to address the ‘Long Tail’ (a term coined by Chris Anderson, reinterpreted here).
To understand the Long Tail problem, start with the bed you will be lying in tonight. Bed makers are keen to reduce their CO2 emissions. Oakdene Hollins are working with many to achieve this in both the UK and EU. Most mattresses are manufactured from fewer than 20 components, from steel springs potentially supplied by Leggett and Platt through to polyurethane foams potentially supplied by Vita Cellular Foams. There are six large mattress makers and hundreds of smaller ones. Each has a Tier 1 supply chain network of 20 to 25 other companies, and those suppliers use another 15 to 20 key sources for their materials, such as cotton sourced from the USA, Brazil and Turkey, or wool from Yorkshire or New Zealand. It is not too great a leap to estimate that the average mattress, like the one you will be sleeping on tonight, requires a total of 450 to 500 business suppliers from every continent on the planet. If we are to reduce CO2 emissions in something as commonplace as a mattress, we need to engage with at least half of these suppliers. Business is best placed to drive change along these supply chains. Today, this work is being led by the biggest manufacturers such as Silent Night Group, Harrison Spinks and Hypnos Beds. But who is going to convince the hundreds of smaller manufacturers to participate? In my opinion they are the ‘Long Tail’ and collectively they are just as important to global warming as the few large manufacturers. We need to simplify the next steps in CO2 emission reduction for all of those in the Long Tail. This means we will need to find an equivalent insight to the full-belly-first technique used by Laurent Fabius in Paris – preferably sooner rather than later.
Our team is currently engaged in this topic through supporting business and trade associations, across the UK and EU, including the National Bedding Federation. For those interested in hearing more about our offerings for the mattress industry or more generally across the field of carbon accounting, please get in contact with vivian.shi@oakdenehollins.co.uk.
References:
FT Articles : https://www.ft.com/content/517bd16b-fb1c-4448-9ec0-8bf9152caa17
‘Businesses Rally Behind Global Carbon Pricing Strategy’ October 2021